Experts from the HSE Institute of Social Policy have proposed four scenarios regarding the development of the labor market and social processes in Russia over ten years. These scenarios depend on the dynamics of sanctions pressure and global economic trends. All scenarios predict a decrease in the middle class, as well as an exacerbation of the problem of inequality in one form or another.
The experts in this study include 25 specialists from different sectors, such as academic and expert communities, businesses, and public organizations. They are mainly from Moscow but also come from some regions of the Russian Federation.
The first scenario is the most optimistic. It assumes a world economy growth and a lessening of sanctions at the same time. Experts believe that this resulting combination will allow Russia to fit into the global economy on new terms. If the consequences of 2022 are overcome, Russia could experience moderate growth in sectors such as construction, industry, agriculture, and tourism. The transport industry, logistics, and trade industries could also see relatively prosperous employment dynamics.
Under this scenario, there could be a slight increase in the number of registered entrepreneurs and self-employed people until 2025. However, this growth will slow down in 2030, which could result in a shortage of highly skilled personnel. Real incomes of the population from 2021 to 2030 could grow by approximately 2%, while real wages can grow by 2% by 2025 and 5% by 2030. Poverty could decrease by 2% compared to 2022, reaching 9.8% by 2026-2030.
However, even with the implementation of a positive scenario, the middle class may shrink by 2030. Its percentage may drop to 14-30% from its current share of 50%-20%. There could be a significant growth in the IT and law enforcement agency fields, with slight increases in doctors, teachers, and entrepreneurs.
The second scenario assumes global economic growth, while sanctions against Russia become stricter, leading to a more isolated country. Real incomes and real wages may decrease by around 7% compared to 2021, but they will stabilize by 2030 and remain at the level of 2023-2025. Unemployment could rise, reaching 14% from the years 2023-2025. The unemployment rate could decrease by 2025, but it is expected to surpass the pre-crisis level, reaching 6%. A reduction in the middle class is expected, with a shift towards law enforcement agencies and a slight increase in IT specialists and entrepreneurs.
The third scenario is possible in a situation of easing sanctions against the background of stagnation or recession in the global economy. It predicts a reduction in employment in the hotel and tourism, finance, and insurance sectors. The IT, transport, and logistics industries could experience moderate growth. Platform employment is expected to grow steadily throughout 2030. The projected unemployment rate is not too different from the second scenario, at 5.8% by 2025 and 5.7% by 2030. Salary dynamics could follow the same forecast as the second scenario, with a slight decline in 2022-2025 and a slight increase by 2030.
The fourth is the most pessimistic of all scenarios. In this scenario, the world economy stagnates, and sanctions pressure increases. The risk of simplifying the economy is high, and only moderate growth is expected in agriculture and information technology sectors. However, the industries of finance and insurance, catering, hotel sector, tourism, and trade could experience suffering.
The unemployment rate may reach 6.8% by 2030, potentially impacting large groups of the population. There could be an increase in informal employment and the prevalence of «gray» wages. Furthermore, real wages may decline up to 2030, while poverty levels for 2026-2030 may average 18.7%.
One significant impact of this scenario is the erosion of the middle class. By 2030, it could comprise a mere 10-15% of the population, similar to the situation in the 1990s. The only group expected to increase their presence in the middle class is employees of law enforcement agencies.
Source — HSE
