Two years of intensified sanctions pressure on Russia have demonstrated their low effectiveness, according to Ivan Timofeev, the Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs (RCIA). Despite the significant damage inflicted upon the Russian economy, the sanctions have failed to alter Russia's political course, serving instead as a means for Western politicians to be held accountable to their societies.
In the aftermath of two years of military escalation on Ukrainian territory, Western countries find themselves in a precarious position regarding further sanctions against Russia, Timofeev writes. The scale of sanctions is already substantial to the extent that new restrictions are unlikely to generate the same level of media attention as before.
«The expansion of lists of Russians under blocking sanctions or goods under trade bans can continue indefinitely... but such actions will not create the same political and media impact as before. One could attempt to begin blocking sectors that previously avoided significant restrictions. However, sanctions against, for example, oil and gas majors would harm the initiators themselves due to price fluctuations. Secondary sanctions could be emphasized, but they were already widely applied last year. Finally, presenting the public with the idea of diverting income from Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine is possible. However, this topic has been discussed for a long time, and there is still no consensus on whether asset seizure would backfire», — the expert says.
The inability of sanctions to change Russia's political course became evident as early as the first year of military escalation. Timofeev reminds that such objectives have not been achieved in any country subject to similar restrictions, whether it be North Korea, Iran, or China. Furthermore, the current demands of Russian diplomacy sound harsher than they did in March-April 2022.
One argument put forth by proponents of sanctions is their cumulative effect. The argument posits that while sanctions may not cause immediate devastating harm, they slow down the economy, lead to its stagnation and simplification, ultimately undermining the country's economic well-being in the long term. On the other hand, Russia has demonstrated an ability to adapt to new conditions and even exhibit economic growth.
The effectiveness of sanctions can be assessed in terms of the volume of damage inflicted. Many goods and technologies have become inaccessible to Russia, conducting military operations comes at a higher cost, and restructuring supply chains from Europe to Asia entails numerous costs, from additional expenses due to increased transport distances to discounts at which «friendly» countries agree to purchase Russian energy resources.
In 2023, one of the main directions of sanctions pressure became so-called secondary sanctions. The United States particularly exerted significant efforts in this direction. Small intermediary companies that violated export controls against Russia and other restrictions were mainly targeted by such sanctions, while larger companies were affected to a lesser extent. The primary effect achieved through such restrictions was psychological. As a result, many companies and banks in «friendly» countries began to sever ties with the Russian side, leading to the emergence of numerous smaller suppliers and intermediaries.
Today, the domestic political aspect of sanctions has gained significant importance, according to Timofeev. «A nuclear power cannot simply be bombed, as was done, for example, with Yugoslavia in its time. In these circumstances, sanctions remain a tool for the 'accountability' of executive authorities to parliaments and the public: sanctions imposed = measures taken. This briefly characterizes the domestic political significance of their use, regardless of the specific effect of restrictive measures», the expert concluded.
Source: Profil
