SIPRI experts prepared a report about trends in international arms report. For a five-year period between 2018-2022 imports of major arms increased by 47% in Europe. At the same time global arms transfers reduced by 5.1%. The decreases in arms transfers occurred in Africa (-40%), in America (-21%), in Asia and Oceania (-7.5%) and in the Middle East (-8.8%). The world’s largest importers for the 2018-2022 period were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia and China. Top five world’s largest exporters were the USA, Russia, France, China and Germany.
SIPRI experts state an armed conflict in Ukraine did not affect the global trends for 2018-2022 period crucially. At the same time, they highlight that Ukraine became the world’s top three largest arms importer. The report also highlights a significant growth in European states’ import orders, which will affect the world’s big picture in the future. The authors say that the current happenings in Europe will show their results in the nearest future.
The institute’s experts defined 63 arms exporters in 2018-2022. Five world’s largest exporters – USA, Russia, France, China and Germany occupy 76% of the world’s total arms export. For the last five years American and French arms export grew by 14% and 44% respectively, while Russian, Chinese and German results decreased by 31%, 23% and 35% respectively.
There were 167 arms importers within the observed period. The leaders were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia and China, who received 36% of total global arms imports in the period. States in Asia and Oceania accounted for 41% of all arms imports in 2018–22, followed by the Middle East 31%, Europe 16%, the Americas 5.8% and Africa 5.0%.
The world’s import has changed in the least five years due to the aggravation of relations and geopolitical tensions in different regions. Thus, Asian import has increased mostly because of Japan (+171% comparing to the previous 5-year period) and South Korea (+61% in the period). The expert think that it occurred because of growing tension in the region caused by aggravation of relations between China and Taiwan, and another key factor was a growing number of missile tests conducted by the DPRK. In Europe such a key factor was an armed conflict in Ukraine, which led to 47% arms import growth, and, according to SIPRI experts this trend in going to remain the future.
Based on the data on orders and final negotiations of orders, the authors make several conclusions about the future of major arms import and export in the coming years. The authors suppose the USA is going to keep its leadership, while Russia is likely to lose its position due to the shortage of orders and negotiations. Along with that the experts say that the ongoing armed conflict makes Russian defence industry to change its focus from export towards its own needs. Moreover, sanctions and restrictions will remain a significant obstacle for the growth of Russian military export. According to the authors, China also expects a continuation of the decline, and France and South Korea can improve their positions.
At the same time experts notice that at the moment it is almost impossible to make an accurate forecast related to the trends of arms transfer. However, they conclude that the situation on the international arena will significantly affect the market structure and its players in the future.
Source: SIPRI
