The EU embargo on the supply of Russian oil products has led to an increased development of the African market by Russia. Despite the fact that in the summer of 2023, the supply of petroleum products to the continent decreased slightly, they are still several times higher than last year. According to S&P Global, in June, deliveries of Russian oil products to Africa amounted to about 250,000 barrels per day. Experts believe that the new scheme for distributing oil product flows will last for a long time, but an increase in shipments to Africa depends on the solvency of local consumers and the desire of Russian companies to invest in local infrastructure.
According to S&P Global, deliveries of Russian oil products to Africa in June of this year decreased significantly compared to peaks in February-March but remain at a historically high level compared to the same period in 2022 (50,000 barrels per day in June last year against about 250,000 barrels per day in June of this year).
A significant increase in deliveries from Russia is observed in Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, Libya, and Egypt.
The growth in deliveries to Africa is associated with the entry into force on February 5 of the EU embargo on Russian oil products. In March, deliveries to Africa reached 420 thousand barrels per day, having increased by 14 times over the year and amounting to almost a quarter of all Russian exports of petroleum products.
According to S&P Global analysts, the current trend of increasing shipments from Russia to Africa is long-term and represents structural changes in the market that "are not going anywhere." Vsevolod Sviridov, an Expert at the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, agrees with this assessment. He notes the population growth and the shortage of oil refining capacities in Africa as positive factors that guarantee long-term market growth.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, in a commentary for Kommersant, pointed to an increase in the number of consumers of Russian oil products in Africa. Thus, countries such as Senegal, Ghana, and Togo have appeared in the list of buyers. At the same time, the expert highlights the potential risks of non-payment for fuel supplies due to economic problems in some African countries.
Source — Kommersant
