Military aviation. Export from Russia in 2014–2018

By Andrey Frolov 

Today, it is evident that 2014 has become the key milestone in Russia’s and the world history. The annexation of the Crimea, the beginning of civil war in Ukraine... These events have changed the modus vivendi for Russia and Western countries and resulted in imposing a package of anti-Russian sanctions, including sanctions against Russia's military and industrial complex. 

MIG-29 

 

And though European countries stopped imposing sanctions in 2014, the USA is regularly extending its sanction lists, adding various Russian defence companies. The U.S. sanctions are drifting away from the issues relating to the Crimea and Ukraine and are referred to internal political aspects of the USA (alleged interfering of Russian hackers in the 2016 election campaign in the USA), as well as to global political issues (collaboration with Iran). By the way, the latter have often been used by the USA as the reason for imposing sanctions on Russian defence companies since as far as the early 2000s.

In 2015, Russia interfered in the Syrian conflict. This also marked the milestone for Russia’s policy in the Middle East and for Russian armed forces. Syria has become a training range not only for the modified structure of the Russian army, but also for weapons that have been developed and procured under the State Armaments Programs (for the period until 2015 and until 2020) and, with some minor exceptions, have not been used for combat missions. As of March 2018, according to official data, about 210 different weapon prototypes have passed operational testing in Syria, including experimental and low-batch systems.

All these factors definitely affect Russian arms export. As aircraft equipment usually totals about 50% of all supplies, we will review the export of military airplanes and helicopters from Russia in 2014–2017.

Along with the above-mentioned political factors, the second half of 2014 has marked a sharp fall in oil prices. This affected the customers who usually prefer to purchase Russian arms (Algeria, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Iraq). The situation that takes place in Venezuela by 2018 allows to believe that the country is likely to become the marginal consumer of Russian arms, first of all, of aircraft equipment.

Nonetheless, in 2014 Russia signed a number of contracts with the Middle East countries. These contracts started to pay back in later years. For example, Russia signed a large package of contracts with Egypt for at least $3.5 bln; this country became the first importer of the MiG-29M/M2 fighter aircraft and combat helicopters Ka-52[1]. Russia signed a large package of contracts, including the Su-25 attack aircraft for at least $1 bln; the package was prepared and implemented in record-breaking time to disprove the popular cliché that the Russian military and technical cooperation system is clumsy.

Actually, the military-technical cooperation with Ukraine was frozen. The aircraft building industry was affected through a more complicated logistic structure for supplying turboshaft and turbojet engines manufactured by PJSC “Motor-Sich” to Russia (supplies were terminated only in spring 2018).

Russia continues its course for the liberalization of the MTC system – The Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation allowed “Russian Helicopters” to sign contracts with foreign customers for supplying spare parts and service maintenance of combat aircraft.

In 2014, new combat aircraft were mainly supplied to India, which received (according to estimates) 14 assembly sets for licensed assembly of the Su-30MKI fighter aircraft under the 2000 contract, plus 14 Su-30MKI fighter aircraft under the 2012 contract. India has also received six МiG-29K/KUB carrier-based fighters under the 2010 contract. Russia overhauled the long-range anti-submarine aircraft Tu-142ME for the Indian Navy.

Vietnam received first four Su-30МK2 fighters under the 2013 contract for 12 aircraft in total[2]. Nine Su-25 attack aircraft from the inventory of the Russian Air Force were exported to Iraq under a “special” contract in 2014. China is believed to receive one or two military transport aircraft Il-76MD (also from the inventory of Russia's MoD).

In 2014, a considerable part of helicopter transfers – 128 rotorcraft – were identified. Only three Mi-8T helicopters were supplied from the inventory. India received 19 Mi-17V-5 helicopters; China – 20 Mi-17E helicopters; Afghanistan – 30 Mi-17V-5 helicopters[3]. Moreover, the Mi-8/17 series helicopters were likely to be supplied to Azerbaijan, Peru, Iraq, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cameroon, Ruanda, Nepal, and South Korea. Hungary received three Mi-8T helicopters from the inventory after presales repair. In addition, foreign customers received several new helicopters Kа-32А11VS (China and Belarus)[4].

In 2014, new combat helicopters Mi-35 were supplied to Iraq (at least eight Mi-35M and six Mi-28NE), Azerbaijan, and Brazil[5]. For aircraft supply summary data, please see Tables 1 and 2.

Despite a fall in oil prices in 2015 and a gradual effect of sanctions, the growth in contracting and the stability of supplies were observed. Certain liberalization of the MTC system has been continued concerning service maintenance of supplied equipment and material resources. For example, JSC “United Engine Corporation” (UEC) was authorized by the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) for carrying out export supplies of spare parts, components and technical documentation for the previously supplied military products for the period of five years, including the permit to execute works related to maintenance, repair (including upgrading involving research and development works) and extension of service life[6].

In 2015, new combat aircraft were mainly supplied to India, which received (according to estimates) 12 assembly sets for licensed assembly of the Su-30MKI fighter aircraft under the 2012 contract, plus next eight carrier-based МiG-29K/KUB fighters under the 2010 contract. Four Su-30S fighters were exported to Kazakhstan[7]. Vietnam received four Su-30МK2 fighters[8]. Also 14 operational training aircraft Yak-130 were supplied to Bangladesh[9]. Eight military transport aircraft Il-76TD were supplied to China from the inventory[10].

In 2015, supplies of 89 helicopters were identified; although, the actual number was much higher – not less than 100 rotorcraft. India received 23 Мi-17V-5 helicopters, Peru – 16 Мi-171Sh-P, Azerbaijan – five Мi-17V-5, Bangladesh – five Мi-17V-5. Also, the Russian Мi-8/17 series helicopters were supplied to Indonesia, Cuba, South Korea, Iraq, Angola, Sri Lanka, and Zambia. Four new Kа-32А11VS helicopters were exported to China. Moreover, Algeria began to receive heavy transport helicopters Мi-26Т2 (four helicopters were exported in total).

In 2015, new combat helicopters were supplied to Iraq (four Mi-35M and two Mi-28NE). Uganda purchased and received four Мi-24V/Мi-24K helicopters from the inventory.

In 2016, the key event within the MTC system was the signing of three intergovernmental agreements (Goa, 15th October 2016) related to defence industry, including an agreement for establishing a joint venture to manufacture multirole helicopters Ka-226T in India (the joint venture is expected to manufacture 140 Ka-226T helicopters, plus 60 helicopters will be supplied from Russia as finished products).

In 2016, Russia began to export new weapons which have never been exported. First of all, Russia started to export the Su-35 fighter. Among other signed contracts for supplying Russian next-gen weapons and military equipment, particular attention should be paid to the expected contract with Algeria to supply the frontline bomber Su-32 (Su-34).

In 2016, supplies of the Su-30/35 series aircraft showed its usual high growth: customers received 18 new fighters. For example, Algeria instantly received the first eight Su-30МКI(А) fighters under the 2015 contract. Russia started to supply the Su-35 fighters to China; the customer received the first four aircraft (the contract was signed in 2015). The last four Su-30MK2 fighters were exported to Vietnam under the 2013 contract. Two Su-30SM fighters were delivered to Kazakhstan. Probably, individual components and materials were supplied to India for the licensed production of the Su-30МKI fighters. Moreover, the MiG-29 series fighters were delivered to India (six carrier-based fighters MiG-29K/KUB).

Similarly to supplies in the previous years, supplies of the operational training aircraft Yak-130 were intensified. Myanmar, Bangladesh and Belarus receive these aircraft (see Table 1).

The transfer of two passenger aircraft Sukhoi Superjet 100 (Sukhoi Business Jet, SBJ) supplied in VIP versions may be accessed as one of positive events of 2016 as this transfer extended the lineup of exported aircraft.

Supplies of combat aircraft from the inventory of Russia’s Aerospace Forces were intensified. Iraq was likely to receive four Su-25 attack aircraft; and about ten modified frontline bombers Su-24M2 were supplied to Syria.

Supplies of helicopters were considerable. Iraq received 10 combat helicopters Mi-28НNE; the first helicopters of the same type were supplied to Algeria (six rotorcraft). The Mi-35M helicopters were supplied to Iraq (not less than three rotorcraft) and Kazakhstan. It is known that the Mi-24 series helicopters were supplied from the inventory – Angola received an unknown number of the Mi-24P helicopters; Cameroon got two Mi-24V/K helicopters.

It is worth to mention the export of transport helicopters. In particular, Algeria and China received heavy helicopters Mi-26. The Mi-17/171 series helicopters were supplied to China, Bangladesh, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Angola, Uganda, and Serbia (see Table 1). Moreover, five Kа-32А11VS helicopters were exported to China.

In 2017, data on the share of aircraft equipment in the stock of orders was updated. Aircraft equipment totaled 50% of the stock of orders; the scope of supplies increased from 40–45% to 50%[11]. It has been reported that contracts were signed to supply 106 helicopters for $4.7 bln, or 11.75% of the entire stock of orders[12]. The year 2017 has marked the beginning of export supplies of the MiG-29М/М2 helicopters and combat helicopters Ka-52 to Egypt.

Speaking of supplies of aircraft equipment at large, we should note than supplies of the Su-30/35 series fighters showed a traditionally high rate: different customers received 18 new fighters and two operational aircraft from the inventory. Supplies of the Su-35 fighters to Chine continued (10 aircraft were supplied). Algeria received six Su-30МKI(А) fighters, and Kazakhstan – two Su-30SM fighters. Two Su-30K fighters previously owned by the Indian Air Force were eventually delivered to Angola.

The Mig-29 series fighters were supplied to Egypt which started to receive the MiG-29М/М2 fighters (up to 15 aircraft). Similarly to the previous years, the operational training aircraft Yak-130 were exported – Myanmar received the next three aircraft.

Six fighters were supplied to Serbia (from the inventory of Russia's MoD). Syria was likely to receive 10 frontline bombers Su-24M, also from the inventory of Russia's Aerospace Forces. Kirgizia received two military transport aircraft An-26 for free from the inventory of Russia's Aerospace Forces.

Supplies of helicopters were considerable as before. In the segment of combat helicopters, Egypt received the first supplies of the Ka-52 helicopters (19 aircraft); Algeria received six Мi-28NE helicopters. The Mi-25M helicopters were supplied to Iraq, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Mali (see Table 1). It is known that the Mi-24 series helicopters from the inventory were supplied – Syria received an unknown number of the Mi-24P helicopters; Tajikistan received one Mi-24V helicopter.

The export of transport helicopters also remained at the appropriate level. Algeria received heavy helicopters Mi-26. The Mi-17/171 series helicopters were supplied to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, China, and Kenya. One Mi-8 helicopter was transferred to Tajikistan. Also, six Kа-32А11VS helicopters were exported to China.

For the time being, it is difficult to estimate the 2018 trends. Among other big events this year, we can mention the signing of a significant contract with Indonesia for supplying 11 Su-35 fighters for $1.1 bln; a contract with Myanmar for six Su-30SME (the first customer purchasing this fighter modification) for $400 mln and a contract with Kazakhstan for eight Su-30SM (for about $400 mln). No doubt, we should pay attention to the beginning of supplies of the Mi-26T2 helicopters to Jordan.

On the other hand, 2018 has marked growing negative effects caused by anti-Russian sanctions (first of all, those imposed by the USA). For example, it is known that the above-mentioned contract with Jordan for the Su-35 fighters has been negotiated for a long time as the parties have been trying to define the best funding conditions with sanctions imposed on some Russia’s banks. Evidently, the number of such cases will be growing, and the banking sector will be the most vulnerable, as well as the logistic support sector.

To sum up, we should say that the American, European and Ukrainian sanctions have not affected Russia’s export of combat aircraft and equipment. There are no reports that any contracts have been lost through Russia's fault; public data on actual supplies allows to conclude that supplies are maintained at the stable level in 2014–2018. Sanctions are likely to affect contracting; mostly, they make negotiation terms longer and complicate financial arrangements to pay for Russian supplies. With some minor exceptions, no public data on such situations is available.

The conflict in Syria does not directly affect supplies of combat airplanes and helicopters, except the supplies of aircraft and equipment from the inventory of Russia's Aerospace Forces to the Syrian Army for free. Contracts signed in 2015–2018 are likely to be the result of the previous agreements. The “Syrian effect” may become evident in 2019–2020 by the completion of the negotiations initiated after 30th Sept. 2015 – the beginning of Russia’s military operation in Syria.

Table 1. Aircraft supplies in 20142017

Aircraft type

2014

2015

2016

2017

Su-35

 

 

4

10

Su-30МKI*

28

12

8

6

Su-30МK2

4

4

4

 

Su-30SМ/SМE

 

4

2

2

Su-30K (inventory)

 

 

 

2

МiG-29М/М2

 

 

 

15

МiG-29K/KUB

6

8

6

 

МiG-29 (inventory)

 

 

 

6

Su-24М2 (inventory)

 

 

10

10**

Su-25 (inventory)

9

9

4

 

Yak-130

 

14

9

3

SSJ100***

 

 

2

 

Il-76TD (inventory)

2**

8**

 

 

An-26 (inventory)

 

 

 

2

* Su-30MKI and Su-30МKI(А) modifications; assembly sets supplied to India are included (in 2014)

** estimates

*** for Thailand AF

 

Table 2. Aircraft contracts for government customers under the MTC program in 20152018

Aircraft type

2015

2016

2017

2018 (until July 1)

Su-35

24

 

 

11

Su-30МKI(A)

14

 

 

 

Su-30SМ/SМE

8

 

14

14

МiG-29М/М2

46

 

 

 

Su-32*

 

12

 

 

Yak-130

20

 

16**

 

SSJ100

 

1

 

 

Be-200ChS

 

2

2

 

* estimates

** estimated value

 

New defence order. Strategy | 05 | 2018


 

[1] Egypt to purchase Russian weapons for $3.5 bln // Nezavisimaya gazeta, 18.09.2014.

[2] Vietnam receives the first Su-30МK2 fighter under a new contract // bmpd.livejournal.com, 12.12.2014.

[3] CAST Center’s estimates; Rosoboronexport to complete supplies of Мi-171Е helicopter to China // ITAR-TASS, 30.06.2014; Contracts with Pentagon for supplying 63 Мi-17V-5 helicopters will be completed on 29th October // Interfax-AVN, 22.10.2014; N. Novichkov. First 19 Мi-17V-5 helicopters are supplied to India // ITAR-TASS, 12.02.2014.

[4] Web site: http://bmpd.livejournal.com/895628.html

[5] Iraqi MoD receives the third batch of combat helicopters Мi-35М // RIA “Novosti” 02.10.2014; Terms of delivery are announced for Russian helicopters ordered by Azerbaijan // APA, 05.07.2014; 12 Mi-35М helicopters are supplied for Brazilian AF // “Military-industrial courier”, 12.02.2014.

[6] UEC receives a license for service maintenance of aircraft engines as part of military-technical cooperation // Interfax-АVN, 12.02.2015.

[7] A. Nikolsky. Russia supplies arms to friendly countries // Vedomosti, 22.12.2015.

[8] Web site: http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1669982.html

[9] Web site: http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1619486.html

[10] Web site: http://sputniknews.com/business/20160113/1033068959/russian-unnamed-asia-il76.html

[11] Almost one half of Russia's arms export is aircraft // RIA “Novosti”, 15.06.2017; Rosoboronexport reports a sharp rise in the demand for combat aircraft // RIA “Novosti” 16.08.2017.

[12] Rosoboronexport’s stock of orders includes supply contracts for helicopters for $4.7 bln, contracts for supplying 106 helicopters to be accomplished // Interfax-AVN, 19.06.2017.

Our partners